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February 03 Test of FoxmarksJuly 11 Red Sox at the breakSo, at the All-Star break, with 87 games under their belt, the World Champion Red Sox look much better than the 2004 team, at first glance. They are in 1st, up by 2 games over Baltimore, while the 2004 squad was in 2nd, down by 7 games to New York. That's an impressive 9-game swing. And they did all this without their ace, and with their closer being injured and totally ineffective.
In reality, however, they are playing just barely better than they did at the All-Star break last year -- .563 vs. .558, an improvement of just .005 in the W-L percentages, though have played one more game this year. By some measures, they are playing worse. This year, they have only a 44-run edge in runs scored vs. runs against. Last year, their margin at the break was 80 runs. They had scored 9 more runs last year at the break, and, crucially, they had allowed a full 27 fewer runs.
The big swing in the standings isn't so much due to the Sox being better, but to the Yankees being far worse. NY's W-L percentage is down over 100 points from the 2004 break -- just .535, vs. .640. But the Yankees are coming. In the past 10 games, the Sox have significantly weakened their position, going 5-5, while NY went 7-3.
What that means is that, to make the playoffs, the Sox may need almost as good a pre-September run as the phenomenal streak they put together last year, especially since, this year, the Wild Card slot may not be available to a team in the East. To win, say, the same 98 games they did last year, they will need to play 49-26 ball the rest of the season, or a .653 clip. That's doable, especially since they have a very high percentage of games at home. But, it will be very hard with the current pitching.
In fact, it's only a little easier than the .658 ball (50-26) the Sox played after the break last year, to get to 98 wins. That pace would be exactly .100 points in the W-L better than they have done so far. If it's any consolation, the Yankees have a much tougher challenge. To win 98 games, the Yanks will have to play 52-24 ball after the break, or a .684 winning percentage. That's .149 points better than they've done so far.
The team ERA of 4.84 and WHIP of 1.40 are both the worst in the A.L., except for the two disastrous losers, KC and TB.
The team batting average of .282 leads the league, but the Sox don't lead in any other major offensive category except doubles, though they are close in OPS, OPB and RBIs. June 25 Back on TopThe Red Sox tonight have dethroned Baltimore, and lead the division for the first time since April 23 -- two months ago. Over the last 10 games, Boston's 9-1 record is the best in the majors. They've won 5 in a row, 10 of their last 11, and are now finally even on the road, 20-20. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 5.5 games back, only one game over .500. They are 14-19 on the road, and have lost 3 in a row.
June 24 2005 vs. 2004Here is some interesting perspective on the Red Sox season so far. After the sweep of Cleveland, which was completed on June 22, 2005, the Red Sox are 41-30, 11 games over .500. They are leading the wild-card race by 2 games over Minnesota, and by today they stood just .5 games back of the A.L. East Division leader, Baltimore. And that's without Schilling, Pedro, or Lowe. Last year, after the game of June 22, 2004, the Red Sox were 40-29, 11 games over .500 -- exactly the same. But they were 4.5 games back of the division leader, the Yankees. And that was with Schilling (9-4 at that point); Pedro (7-3 at that point); and Lowe (6-5 at that point.) By the way, a couple of days later last year, when the team had played its 71st game (same total as they've played so far this year,) they were in worse shape than the 2005 squad, at 40-31, and 5.5 games behind the Yankees. So, despite the Schilling injury, the Pedro and Lowe trades, the terrible bullpen, the Manny slump, and everything else, they are equal to their record on the same date last year and ahead of where they were after playing the same number of games last year. And it is perfectly conceivable that, with a break or two, the Sox could be leading the division by the All-Star break on July 11. In comparison, the Yankees at this point last year were roughly 20 games above .500, and today stand at just 37-34. Last year, they were leading the division on June 22. This year on June 22, they were 5 games back, and 4 games behind the Sox. (In the wild card, they were 4 games back.) They, too, could be leading the East on July 11, but it will be more of a stretch. I realize that this same Sox W-L record was considered bad last year, and led to the Nomar trade. I realize that making the playoffs required an amazing August run that they are unlikely to repeat. But I'm just saying... June 14 Baseball Soars in DCWe Washingtonians knew having baseball back this season would be fun. But who could have predicted what's happening now? The Washington Nationals have already drawn over a million in less than two months, eclipsing the best attendance the old Senators recorded for a whole season. And the Nats are in first place in the most competitive division in baseball, the N.L. East. Incredibly, this is "later" in the season than any Senators team held first place after 1933. (Which helps explain the awful attendance figures for the Senators.) And, for the first time, both of this area's teams are in first, since the Orioles remain atop the A.L. East (though not for long, if we Red Sox fans have our way.) I certainly don't expect the Nats to win the pennant, or even to necessarily make the playoffs. But they are very exciting, and, in a town whose Redskins have been out of the playoffs since forever, it's great to have a contender to stand alongside the NBA Wizards, who returned to the playoffs this year after a long, long drought. |
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